pWATERTOWN — Punxsutawney Phil may be on to something./ppWhen he emerged from Gobbler’s Knob on Tuesday morning and did not see his shadow, an early spring was predicted. Meteorologists seem to agree with Phil; they say one thing is for certain — the north country is not on track to have a winter as brutal as it did last year./ppWhether you chalk it up to the El Nino Effect, global warming or just plain good luck, this January was a relatively mild month compared to January 2015, and it looks like February will follow suit./ppAccording to data from the Watertown Filtration Plant, the city received 30.45 inches of snow as of today, a mere one-third of what it had received last year by Feb. 2, when recorded snowfall was measured at 92.5 inches./ppFurthermore, much of this year’s snowfall has been conveniently spread out across January — no more than 5 inches fell on any given day, other than 7.5 inches on Jan. 14./ppOnly 4 inches of snow fell on the city in the months before January./ppAaron Reynolds, a meteorologist with the National Weather Service in Buffalo, said it is hard to attribute the mild weather to any one cause, but he said El Nino has played a part./pp“It’s definitely a factor,” he said. “We are considerably warmer than last year.”/ppThe El Nino Effect, or the warming of surface waters in the Pacific Ocean, can significantly influence weather in North America, often bringing with it milder temperatures./ppMr. Reynolds said Watertown experienced an average temperature of 23.2 degrees in January, about 8 degrees higher than last year’s average for the month, which was 15.2 degrees./pp“That can make a big difference in snowfall,” he said. “We just haven’t had as much lake-effect snow.”/ppHe said there is a good chance this February will also be warmer than it normally is in Watertown. Historically, the normal average temperature for the month is about 21 degrees./ppLast year, Watertown set records for its February temperatures, both locally and nationally. /ppThe monthly average temperature was a mere 6.1 degrees, according to data collected at the Watertown International Airport. That made February 2015 the a href="http://www.watertowndailytimes.com/news03/this-february-was-watertowns-coldest-in-recorded-history-20150302"coldest in the city’s recorded history/a./ppOn Feb. 16, 2015, temperatures at the airport reached 36 below zero, putting the city on the map as the coldest place in the contiguous United States for that day./ppHowever, as February began on Monday with a high of 55 degrees, Mr. Reynolds said locals can be optimistic that last February will not repeat itself./pp“Right now, temperatures look like they will be above normal for the month,” he said./ppSo, whether you take it from a groundhog or a meteorologist, an early spring may be within reach for the north country./ppThe National Weather Service predicts that temperatures will range from 30 to 50 degrees throughout the rest of the week, with a chance of rain or snow showers each day./p
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